Settlement in the UK

13th July 2015
Next update
13/07/2016
Press contact
Rob McNeil

This briefing gives details about how many non-European migrants are granted settlement in the UK every year, their demographic characteristics and the various bases for their grants of settlement.

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Key Points

  • In 2014 there were 103,147 grants of settlement to non-EEA migrants. This was a 33% decrease from 2013 and the lowest number recorded since 1999.
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  • In 2014, 38% of settlements were granted on the basis of employment and residency (including dependents of labour migrants), 32% were granted on the basis of family formation and reunification, 17% were granted on the basis of asylum, and 14% were granted for 'other discretionary reasons', many of which are linked to a backlog of asylum cases.
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  • Among migrants granted settlement in 2013 the most common countries of citizenship were India (17% of all settlements) and Pakistan (12%).
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  • At least 86% of settlements on the basis of marriage in 2012 were granted to spouses of British citizens.
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Understanding the evidence

A grant of settlement from the British government confers legal permission to live permanently in the UK without being subject to immigration control, although it does not confer full citizenship status. Data on settlement (also known as 'indefinite leave to remain', or ILR) come from Home Office administrative sources. They are limited to non-European Economic Area or Swiss nationals. The Home Office counts all grants of settlement issued and publishes data on the total number of grants, the basis of grants (residency and work, family, asylum) and demographic information on the grantees  (age, gender, nationality). Since grants of settlement involve a transaction with the government, trends over time are not purely the product of migrants’ arrivals and subsequent decisions to stay; changes in government policies and capacity for processing applications can also influence trends in settlement data.
The 'family' category is a possible source of confusion in settlement data. Settlement grants on the basis of family go to individuals who are related to a British citizen or previously-settled British resident (usually as the spouse or child of said citizen or resident). People can also qualify for settlement as 'dependents', or family members of migrants who are themselves just gaining settlement. (When the “principal” migrant in the family qualifies for settlement, that person’s dependent family members are eligible to be granted settlement at the same time.) Thus, 'dependents' are a grey area for statistical categorisation - they qualify for settlement because of their family relationship with the 'main applicant', but that main applicant must have some other basis (such as work with residency or asylum) for settlement. Some analyses group dependents with other family settlements; others group dependents with the 'principal' settlement applicant. In this briefing dependents are usually classified in the same category as the main applicant in their families.

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Overall levels of settlement are down from a 2010 peak

Although annual grants of settlement have been increasing over the past 20 years, overall levels have decreased since their peak in 2010. As shown in Figure 1, in 2014 there were 103,147 grants of settlement to non-EEA migrants. This was the lowest level since 1999, when there were 97,117 settlement grants. (Note that citizens of countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 were still non-EU citizens before those dates and thus included in settlement grants.) The 2014 level was a 33% decrease from 2013 when 154,689 people were granted settled status, and a 57% decrease since the 2010 peak.

Prior to the peak in 2010, the trend over the past two decades had been mostly growth. Annual settlements averaged 54,065 in the five-year period from 1990-1994, and grew in each of the next five-year periods to an average of 68,570 during 1995-1999, 125,645 p.a. (2000-2004), and 156,428 p.a. (2005-2009). There is reason to think that the 2009-2010 peak was an outlier to this trend of slower increase. Some of this peak was driven by “other discretionary” settlement grants stemming from a programme to clear a backlog of unsuccessful asylum seekers, discussed in further detail below.

The decrease in settlement grants since 2010 is not driven by a single category, however: work, family, and 'other' bases for grants of settlement have all declined considerably since that year. 

Figure 1

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The apparent interruption in the increasing trend between 2006 and 2008 may represent changes in policy and record-keeping, rather than an actual change in patterns of migration and settlement application (see evidence gaps and limitations below). In April 2006 the residency requirement for settlement grants for migrants in work-based categories changed from four years to five years. This temporarily reduced settlement as people waited an additional year for eligibility, but then possibly led to additional pent-up demand once the wait ended.

Settlement grants are also affected by the number of entries in previous years, as this affects the number of people newly eligible for settlement after a period of residence. For example, one reason behind the decline in work-related settlement grants from 2011 to 2014 is the falling numbers of work visas that were issued for people coming to the UK from 2007-2009. See our briefing, Immigration by Category: Workers, Students, Family Members, Asylum Applicants.

Although recent figures show declines in settlement in most categories, there have been both rises and falls since 1997

Figure 2 shows considerable fluctuation over time in the most common bases of settlement grants. In 2014, settlement grants in all but one category decreased from their levels in 2013. ‘Other discretionary’ grants increased marginally by 77 people.

However, long-term trends among the different categories differ. Grants on the basis of employment and residency (including dependents) increased from 9,910 in 1997 to 84,347 in 2010 before falling to 38,774 by 2014. The temporary decline from 2006-2008 probably stemmed from the changes in policy and record-keeping described above. The decline from 2010 onwards is also consistent with a decrease in the numbers of people coming to the UK for work in the second half of the 2000s. The number people granted entry visas for work in tiers 1 and 2 of the points-based system (plus their dependants), for example, fell by more than 40,000 between 2006 and 2009.

There has also been a decrease in the share of people initially entering for work who gain settlement within 5 years. According to the Home Office “Migrant Journey” dataset, 30% of people issued skilled work visas in 2004 had gained settlement 5 years later. This share declined to 20% for people receiving skilled work visas in 2008. Declines in settlement on the basis of employment up to 2014 should not be attributed to the £35,000 minimum income threshold introduced by the 2010-2014 coalition government. This threshold was designed to restrict eligibility for work-based settlement but it does not come into force until 2016.

Despite the decrease, employment remains the most frequent category of settlement grant. This has generally been the case since 2008 with one exception in 2013 when settlement for family reasons was slightly higher. In 2014, people settling for employment reasons represented 37.6% of the total, over twice as much compared to 17% of the 1997 totals when the Home Office dataset begins. 

Figure 2

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Settlement grants to family members (excluding dependents of individuals acquiring settlement in other categories such as work) declined from 59,649 in 2013 to 32,604 in 2014, when they accounted for 31.6% of all grants. This is in line with a general decline in numbers since a peak of 72,239 in 2009, although there was an increase in 2013 to 59,649. Lower family settlement grants are consistent with decreases in the numbers of people receiving entry visas as family members since 2006. Numbers in 2014 may also be affected by a 2012 policy change, which extended the time required before applying for settlement as a spouse or civil partner from 2 years to 5 years. This is expected to lead to a temporary reduction in the number of people newly eligible for family settlement. Overall, family formation and reunion has become a smaller share of settlement over time, declining from 56% of settlement grants in 1997.

Meanwhile, settlement for asylum (including dependents) has slightly decreased since 1997 in both absolute terms and as a share of settlements: from 20% of settlements in 1997 (11,780 grants) to 16.7% of grants (17,191) in 2014. But this overall trend obscures an increase from 1997-2005. The peak in 2005 (67,810 grants) came from the Family ILR Exercise (Home Office 2010: 38), which granted settlement to some asylum seekers whose cases had not been decided after three years or more of living in the UK. The decline after 2005 probably stems from two factors: a long-term drop in numbers of asylum seekers, and the temporary effects of another policy change that year. In August, the UK stopped granting immediate settlement to refugees and other asylum applicants. Instead, applicants were granted limited leave to remain with the opportunity to apply for settlement after five more years of UK residence. Thus, new refugees granted leave to remain in 2006 would not be eligible for settlement until 2011, after which the numbers began to increase again.

Former asylum seekers are also represented by settlement grants in the “other” category. This category includes a type called ‘other discretionary grants’ which captures a programme to resolve a backlog of cases involving refused asylum applicants who continued to live in the UK (Home Office 2010: 124, xvii). The Home Office states that the programme began by prioritising candidates for removal, and then progressed to those who “may be allowed to stay in the UK”. Since the goal was to resolve cases over a five year period, the decrease in the ‘other’ category is understandable. Available data do not show how much of the increase in other discretionary grants can be attributed to this programme.

But what the data do reveal is that grants of settlement under this ‘other’ category increased more than six times from 2006 to 2010. In 2006, this category comprised 9% of all settlement grants, including 7,720 labelled as ‘other discretionary grants’ in more detailed figures. By 2010, ‘other’ grants had increased to 82,686, or 34% of the total, before falling to 8,746 by 2012 (6.7% of total grants). In 2014, grants in this category stood at 14,578, or 14.1% of the total settlement grants that year.

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Indian and Pakistani nationals, women, and young people receive the most grants of settlement

As shown in Figure 3, the majority (51%) of people settling in 2013 (the most recent data available) came from Asia, followed by Africa (26%) and the Americas (9%). Asian nationals account for most of the increase since 2004 when the dataset begins, increasing by 70% from 47,050 to 80,154 in 2013. Meanwhile, grants to European nationals have declined by 68% since 2004 to 8,449 grants in 2013. This is likely because EU expansion reduced the need for many European nationals to apply for settlement in Britain. Settlement grants to nationals of all other regions have stayed nearly the same compared to their 2004 levels.  Note that the Home Office’s preferred regional categories no longer disaggregate the Indian sub-continent from the rest of Asia, though these can still be calculated from the country-by-country statistics available within the Home Office’s Immigration Statistics.

Figure 3

The most frequent countries of origin for 2012 migrants granted settlement were India (20% of all settlements) and Pakistan (10%), as shown in Figure 4. Other nationalities not in the top ten comprised 40% of all settlement grants.

Table 1 - Top 10 countries whose nationals received settlement grants in 2013, by share

RankCountry
Share of 2013 settlement grants Number of nationals
1India16.9%26,198
2Pakistan11.7%18,095
3Nigeria5.0%7,699
4China4.7%7,244
5South Africa3.7%5,778
6USA3.5%5,420
7Bangladesh3.2%4,986
8Zimbabwe3.0%4,676
9Somalia2.8%4,341
10Philippines2.7%4,137
Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics, Table se.03

As Figure 5 shows, the demographics of migrants granted settlement in 2012 leans toward the young and female. 67% of migrants granted settlement after fulfilling residency requirements in 2012 were under 35 years of age. 53% overall were female, a change from 2010 when 53% were male. Women were a majority in the 16-24, 25-34, 45-59 and 60+ age groups. Children were slightly more than 50% male, as in 2011.

Figure 4

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Most spouses granted settlement have a British partner

As shown above in Figure 2, settlement for family reasons excluding dependents has fallen behind employment to become the second most common basis for settlement grants. However, by combining family route settlement with grants to dependent family members of migrants in the other categories, family and dependents together would become the largest category of settlement grants—about 85% of the total in 2013 which is the latest year where data of this detail are available.   

The vast majority of people granted settlement for family reasons are spouses and children: 99% in 2014. The majority of migrants granted settlement as spouses are married to or partners of British citizens, as opposed to settled or settling migrants. As Figure 5 shows, in 2013 about 86% of migrant spouses granted settlement had a British spouse or partner, while about 8% had a spouse who was settled or settling in the UK but not a British citizen. The remaining 6% were classified in categories for which the citizenship of their spouse was not specified, such as 'common law spouse' or 'granted settlement on arrival' (see Home Office Immigration Statistics tables for more detail). These proportions have remained largely similar since 2006 when the dataset began.

Figure 5

Note: 'Ambiguous categories' include migrants listed in Home Office data under descriptions that do not refer to spouses’ nationality, such as 'same-sex partner', 'common-law spouse,' and 'granted settlement due to death of spouse or domestic violence after leave to remain granted as a spouse'.

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Evidence gaps and limitations

Home Office data are actual counts of grants of settlement, rather than estimates. For a small percentage of grants, the basis for the grant is missing and categorised as unknown, but otherwise data are relatively problem-free (Home Office 2015: 51-52).

However, changes in trends may results from changes in policy or internal record-keeping, rather than actual changes in the numbers of migrants coming to live and settle in the UK. For example, as discussed above, significant changes in the number and bases of settlement grants since 2005 are attributable to changing methods of handling backlogs of asylum applications (Home Office 2010:  38-40). The related rise in 'other discretionary' grants creates additional problems for analysis, as we do not have further information on the people granted settlement in this category - for example, how many are main applicants and how many are dependents, and what are their characteristics, such as age, gender, and nationality?

In addition, settlement data do not reflect trends in long-term UK residence of EEA/Swiss nationals. People with these nationalities are unlikely to seek ILR, since it is costly and confers little additional benefit to those already in the EU.

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References

Further reading

  • Castles, Stephen. "Guestworkers in Europe: A Resurrection?" International Migration Review 40, no. 4 (2006): 741-766.
  • Castles, Stephen and Mark J. Miller. The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World, 4th ed. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan, 2009: 33-43.

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Press contact

If you would like to make a press enquiry, please contact:
Rob McNeil
+ 44 (0)1865 274568
+ 44 (0)7500 970081
robert.mcneil@compas.ox.ac.uk