Migration Flows of A8 and other EU Migrants to and from the UK

This briefing discusses migration flows of EU citizens (excluding British citizens) to and from the UK. A special focus of the briefing is on A8 citizens – citizens of the eight East European Countries that joined the European Union (EU) in May 2004 (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia).

Key points

The accession of eight East European countries (A8 countries) to the EU in 2004 led to a significant increase in the inflow of EU citizens to the UK. The average annual Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) inflow of EU citizens (excluding British citizens) for 2004-2010 was around 170,000, compared to 67,000 during 1997-2003.
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A8 citizens accounted for close to 15% of total LTIM inflows to the UK in 2010, a share that has decreased since the 2007 peak (about 20%).
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LTIM estimates suggest that net-migration of A8 citizens was 49,000 in 2010. During 2004-2010, LTIM data suggest that total net-migration of A8 citizens was 353,000.
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The Annual Population Survey (APS) suggests that there were 2,081,000 EU citizens living in the UK in the year to March 2011. About 872,000 of those were A8 citizens (42%).
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Evidence from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) suggests that the number A8 citizens working in the UK decreased slightly towards the end of 2009, but started to increase again during late 2010. The number of A8 citizens (16 years and older) working in the UK was 669,000 in the third quarter of 2011.
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At their peak, quarterly National Insurance Number (NINO) allocations to A8 citizens were about 111,000 (first quarter of 2007). The number of NINO allocations to A8 citizens in the second quarter of 2011 was 31,500.
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Understanding the evidence

In UK immigration debates, EU citizens are a key group as they enjoy free movement within the European Union; hence, the UK Government cannot limit their immigration under EU law.

The A8 countries had a per capita income well below EU levels when they joined the EU in 2004. With the exception of the UK, Ireland and Sweden, all other EU countries decided to temporarily restrict labour market access to migrants from the A8 countries. This was possible because the accession agreements allowed existing member states of the EU to impose restrictions on the immigration of citizens from the new member countries for a maximum of seven years. In the UK, A8 citizens were able to freely and legally take up employment since May 2004 as long as they registered with the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS). This requirement ended in 2011.

Four main data sources provide information about EU migration and migrants in the UK (see evidence gaps and limitations below to understand challenges associated with these sources):

Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) estimates of the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS): provides data on immigration, emigration and net-migration of EU and A8 citizens based on a standard definition of a long-term migrant as a person who moves to a country for at least a year. The International Passenger Survey is the main source of information for these estimates (see the briefing on 'Long-Term International Migration Flows to and from the UK').

Labour Force Survey (LFS) and Annual Population Survey (APS) data from the ONS: provides data on the stock of EU and A8 migrants in the UK, including the number of migrants in the labour market.

National Insurance Number (NINO):allocation data from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP): provide information about the allocations of new numbers to EU and A8 workers. These can provide an idea of the number of citizens from these countries that enter the UK labour market.

During 2004-2010, total net-migration of A8 citizens was 353,000

The high level of migration from the A8 to the UK after accession was unexpected. Some of the analysis at the time of the accession (Dustmann et al. 2003) suggested that flows were going to be much smaller. Part of the problem with the projections was that due to a lack of historical data on migration from A8 countries to the UK, the projections for post-enlargement immigration from the A8 countries to the UK were based on a model whose parameters had to be estimated using data from other countries. Another reason was that this large-scale migration contrasts with the dynamics of previous EU accessions such as Spain and Portugal. In those cases, there were no significant migration movements.

Figure 1 uses data from the LTIM to show the inflows, outflows and net-flows of long-term international migrants (i.e. those saying that they intend to stay in the UK for at least 12 months) from the EU and A8 for the period 1991-2010 based on country of citizenship. During 2004-2010, total net-migration of A8 citizens was 353,000. A8 net-migration during 2010 was 49,000 in 2010. This represents an increase of 33,000 net-migrants from the 2009 level (i.e. 16,000) and it is the highest value of net-migration for A8 citizens since the 2007 peak.

Figure 1

Inflows of EU migrants were mainly flat for the 1991-2003 period, averaging close to 61,000 per year. With the inclusion of A8 citizens in the EU estimates in 2004, there was a significant jump in estimated EU migration inflows to the UK and the average annual inflow for the period 2004-2010 was around 170,000 migrants. EU inflows account for close to 30% of total migration inflows, a share that has remained somewhat stable since 2005 (see Figure 2). A8 workers accounted for close to 15% of total (and 49% of EU) migration inflows to the UK in 2010, a share that has decreased since the 2007 peak (about 20%).

It is estimated that about two-thirds of A8 citizens migrating to the UK since 2004 have been Polish citizens (ONS, 2011). The peak of Polish immigration to the UK was 2007 (96,000), but has decreased since then.

Figure 2

In 2008 the number of A8 citizens in the UK labour market stabilised, but it started to increase again during late 2010, a trend that continues in 2011

There are over 850,000 A8 citizens living in the UK (i.e. value from the APS for the year to March 2011 was 872,000). This compares with an estimate for the same period of 2,081,000 EU citizens living in the UK. Therefore, A8 migrants account for about 42% of EU citizens living in the UK, a share that is not very different from their share of EU immigration flows.

Figure 3 presents the level of employment of A8 migrants using the ONS estimates from the LFS. There is a clear increase in the level of employment all the way to the first quarter of 2008, at which point the number stabilised at around 500,000. However, the number started increasing again towards the end of 2010. For the first three quarters of 2011, the average quarterly growth rate of A8 citizens in employment in the UK was 20%. This compares with an average growth rate of 9% for the same period in 2010 and -2% in 2009.

Figure 3

The number of NINO allocations to A8 citizens in the second quarter of 2011 was 31,500

Figure 4 provides the number of NINO allocations to citizens of all the EU countries, all the A8 countries and Poland. The inflow dynamics presented by NINO allocations are similar to the ones suggested by the LTIM data. Until 2004 the numbers were small and then there was a steep increase until 2007 (first quarter). At that peak, quarterly NINO allocations to A8 citizens were about 111,000 (first quarter of 2007), and of those, 81,000 were from Polish workers. Since then there has been an overall downtrend in NINO allocations to A8 citizens, including Polish workers.

The growth rate of NINO allocations to A8 citizens (relative to the same quarter of the previous year) was negative from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2010, when it turned positive. This is consistent with the dynamics in inflows from the A8 to the UK discussed above. Polish workers accounted for about 45% of NINO allocations to A8 citizens during the second quarter of 2011 (down from over 70% during 2007).

Figure 4

The income gap between the A8 countries and the UK suggest that there still exists an incentive for migration

Figure 5 reports the average annual gross national income (GNI) per capita of the A8 countries (excluding Poland), the annual GNI per capita of Poland, and the annual GNI per capita of the UK. Even six years after the accession there remains a significant gap in per capita income; especially for Poland, the demographic giant among the A8 countries (Poland has a population of over 38 million people). This sustained income differential between the UK and the A8 countries suggests that there still exists an incentive for migration from the A8 to the UK.

Figure 5

Evidence gaps and limitations

The ONS’s LTIM estimates rely heavily on the IPS, an imperfect data source – it is a sample survey, is voluntary and relies on people outlining their intentions. (See the Data Sources and Limitations section of the Migration Observatory website for further discussion of the limitations of this data source). Likewise, the LFS and APS are voluntary sample surveys and while both provide data on the stock of A8 and other migrants in the UK, certain groups are excluded, such as those who do not live in a “household” – which would include students living in dormitories, or people living in hostels or bed and breakfast accommodation. NINO allocations do not indicate when a worker leaves the country and are, therefore, just a rough measure of inflows and not of the stock of migrants. The effectiveness of NINO allocations for measuring inflows is also limited because not all migrants request a number (Sumption and Somerville 2010).

References

Dustmann, C., M. Casanova, I. Preston, M. Fertig, and C. M. Schmidt. “The Impact of EU Enlargement on Migration Flows.” Home Office Online Report 25/03, Immigration and Nationality Directorate of the UK, Home Office, London, 2003.
Office for National Statistics. “Polish in the UK.” Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, ONS, Newport, August 2011.
Sumption, M. and W. Somerville. “The UK’s New Europeans: Progress and Challenges Five Years after Accession.” Policy Report, Equality and Human Rights Commission, Manchester, 2010.
Vargas-Silva, C. “Lessons from the EU Eastern Enlargement: Chances and Challenges for Policy Makers.” CESifo DICE Report, Journal for Institutional Comparisons 4 (2011): 3-7.